Investigating the Consequences of an AVF Eruption Using Scenarios (March 2017)
Natalia Deligne’s paper “Investigating the consequences of urban volcanism using a scenario approach I: Development and application of a hypothetical eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand” was just published in the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. The paper details what might happen in Auckland if the city was impacted by a volcanic eruption in the Mangere Bridge area. Specifically, it focuses on the potential impacts and outcomes of such activity on eletricity service provision throughout the region. As expected, the paper generated a lot of media interest. Check out the links below to read some of the recent articles or listen to the radio interviews:
- Auckland’s next big eruption likely to come from a volcano that doesn’t yet exist, scientists say (Stuff 3/3/2017)
- Scientists plot the destruction that a volcanic eruption in Auckland could cause (NZ Herald 5/3/2017)
- Volcanic eruption: How would Auckland cope if one blew? (NewsHub 5/3/2017)
- What would happen if an Auckland volcano erupted (RadioNZ 6/3/2017)
- Scientists investigate Auckland eruption scenarios (RadioNZ Interview 6/3/2017)
- A Volcano Erupts In Auckland…. In Theory (Forbes Online 6/3/2017)
- Cartoons: AVF Scenario (NZ Herald Cartoons 7/3/2017)
- Impact of a Volcanic Eruption on Auckland with Natalia Deligne (WTV Interview 7/3/2017)
- Impact of an Eruption in Auckland (Seven Days Segment [@21 min] 10/3/2017)
- How Auckland Volcanoes Could Erupt (Herald Insights 2/12/16)
- Probing the history of New Zealand’s Orakei Maar (Eos, 97, 20/09/2016)
- Developing Volcanic Hazard and Risk Model for AVF (Rebuild Christchurch, 30/06/2016)
- Volcano Hiding Explosive Secret (NZ Herald, 28/03/2016).
- Delving Deep into History (NZ Herald, 18/02/2016).
- Geologist hunt for clues about Auckland Volcanic activity (Geonet, 18/02/2016).
- Predicting the Impact of an Auckland Eruption (VUW, 14/12/2015, *original press release)
- A Better Understanding of Auckland Volcanoes (Sciblogs News, 14/12/2015)
- Predicting the Impact of an Auckland Eruption (Voxy, 14/12/2015)
- Predicting the Impact of an Auckland Eruption (Wellington Scoop, 14/12/2015)
- Volcanic eruptions in Auckland: What’s the Risk? (New Zealand Herald, 15/12/2015) (One note: Though we could experience an eruption in Auckland at any time, none of our research findings imply that it will definitely happen within the next few hundred years, as the article suggests. We have no way of knowing that–we can only just learn as much about the volcanic field as we can, and be prepared!)
- Huge Blow if Eruption Hit Factory Zones (NZ Herald, 11/05/2015)
- Scientists Map auckland’s Volcanic Hazard Zones (Massey News, 07/05/2015)
- Next Auckland Eruption: Should You Worry? Map Pins Volcano Risk Spots (New Zealand Herald, 07/05/2015)
- New Study Reveals Auckland’s Volcanic Risk (Stuff, 07/05/2015)
- Auckland’s Volcanic Risk (Radio New Zealand National, 16/04/2015)
- Red For Danger (GeoScientist Online, v. 25 (3), April 2015)
- The Fire Beneath Us (New Zealand Geographic, Jan-Feb 2015, issue 131)
Cities on Volcano 9: Let’s Talk with Scientists! (February 2017)
In November 2016, several DEVORA volcanologists attended Cities on Volcanoes, an annual conference focused on the impact of volcanic activity on urban environments around the globe. Emma Hunt from Auckland CDEM also attended the conference, which focused heavily on communicating science to practitioners and communities. To learn more, please read the CDEM E-bulletin here.
How Auckland volcanoes Could Erupt (December 2016)
Based on Gabor Kerestzuri’s recent work, journalists from the NZ Herald have created an interactive map which highlights the linkages between Auckland’s subsurface geology and the type of expected future eruption in any given area of the city. Herald Insights is a new interactive, data driven forum where “stories are told through text, interactive graphics and maps”. This is the first DEVORA work to be presented as an ‘Insight’. Click on the link below to read the article and see the map:
Probing the History of New Zealand’s Orakei Maar (September 2016)
Over 2 weeks in February 2016, DEVORA team members and their collaborators drilled two ~100 m-long cores into the sediments at the bottom of Auckland’s Orakei Basin, a volcanic explosion crater-turned-lake basin. We were able to recover the collected lake bed sediments all the way down to the original volcanic deposits from Orakei Basin’s eruption. Here is a great article describing a little more about what we are doing with the cores, and why we wanted to drill:
Developing volcanic hazard and risk models for the AVF (July 2016)
Natalia Deligne has finished her post-doc looking at the short term impacts of a volcanic eruption occurring within Auckland. Her work shows the importance of the RiskScape tool and of creating detailed scenarios.
Rangitoto: Not What We Expected (March 2016)
The results of the Rangitoto Drilling Project indicate the history of the volcano may be far more complex than scientists originally thought. New ages obtained from the 150m core suggest that the island may be ~6000 years old rather than just 500. Phil Shane, the project leader, suspects that Rangitoto may acutally be a cluster of several smaller volcanoes rather than one larger edifice.
Orakei Drilling Project: Delving Deep into History (February 2016)
As part of grant to reconstruct Auckland’s climate history, scientists from the University of Auckland, Victoria University, and GNS drilled >100 m into the center of Orakei Basin. Samples retrieved from the drilling not only provide a detailed record of climate fluctuations but also of the volcanic history of the region. The core, which potentially spans >140,000 years, will help map out in unprecedented detail past AVF eruptions.
What happens if Auckland’s volcanoes erupt? (January 2016)
Dr Jenni Hopkins was interviewed about her latest research by Radio New Zealand. In the interview, she discusses how researchers study AVF volcanoes and gives an overview of the upcoming Orakei drilling project. Click here to listen to the interview.
Predicting the Impact of an Auckland Eruption (December 2015)
Recent DEVORA PhD graduate, Dr Jenni Hopkins, has had her research findings profiled in several news articles. Her PhD focused on correlating ash found in lake cores around Auckland to source volcanoes to better understand the order of eruptions in Auckland, and the impact that they had (e.g. how far ash/deposits from each volcano traveled, and their thicknesses). Her research is instrumental in creating an age order for the volcanoes to better understand the evolution of the field, and to figure out how ash and other volcanic deposits may affect Auckland during future eruptions (for example, how far did ash/deposits travel from each volcano? How thick are they ‘x’ kilometers away from the vent?).
Economic Impacts of an Auckland Eruption Studied (May 2015)
DEVORA/IIOF researchers Shane Cronin and Garry McDonald’s economic modelling indicate that the disturbance an eruption would cause in certain areas of Auckland would lead to a greater impact on the economy than in other locations. See the NZ Herald article here:
What Areas of Auckland are Susceptible to Explosive Eruptive Activity? (May 2015)
New research by former DEVORA/IIOF PhD Gabor Kereszturi highlights a method that can be used to create an ‘explosive eruption susceptibility’ map for Auckland. The preliminary map, used as an example of what the conceptual model can show, identifies zones that are more likely to produce explosive style eruption behaviours (such as base surges) IF an eruption were to occur in these areas. Highly susceptible zones are not more likely to be the location of future eruptions necessarily, and a lot of data still needs to be added to the model to refine these results. The original article can be read in full here.
Read about the research as covered by the press here:
Hear About ‘Auckland’s Volcanic Risk’ (April 2015)
Listen to volcanologist Jan Lindsay describe the base surge deposits and eruption at Glover Park, what we know about how Auckland’s volcanoes behave, and what we’d expect from the next Auckland eruption on Radio New Zealand National’s ‘Our Changing World’ programme:
Red for Danger (April 2015)
This article describes Mary Anne Thompson‘s work on how hazard map design choices influence the communication of hazard.
The Fire Beneath Us (January 2015)
This in-depth article, two years in the making, describes and illustrates the Auckland Volcanic Field and the DEVORA research programme like never before.
Preparing for the volcano in your backyard: New Zealand sets an example (December 2014)
DEVORA researcher Natalia Deligne was invited to write an opinion piece for EARTH Magazine. The piece provides a fantastic overview of the DEVORA and RiskScape research programmes, ongoing as we ‘wait for the inevitable: a local volcanic eruption.’
- Preparing for the volcano in your backyard (EARTH Magazine, Dec 2014)
Auckland Eruption Exercise Makes Headlines (September 2014)
A story and photos of the annual eruption exercise was chosen for the cover story of CDEM Impact, a quarterly magazine for NZ’s civil defence sector.
- Auckland students practise for the ‘Big One‘ (CDEM Impact, v. 53, September 2014)
Profiles of a DEVORA Researcher and an Emergency Manager (July 2014)
Geologist Sandie Will, author of the Rock-Head Sciences blog, profiled Elaine Smid as part of her ‘A Day in the Life’ series. Elaine gave a summary of her typical work day for DEVORA. Richard Woods, the DEVORA Steering Committee member representing the Auckland Council Emergency Management and Civil Defence Group, also participated in the series. Together these interviews give a great summary of research and policy roles and how they interact cooperatively. The blog is aimed at students and others interested in geology.
- Research Assistant, Volcanic Hazards, Elaine Smid @lavabombs: A Day in the GeoLife Series (Rock-Head Sciences, 21/7/2014)
- Manager, Emergency Mgmt, Richard Woods @RichardWoodsNZ: A Day in the GeoLife series (Rock-Head Sciences, 28/7/2014)
Auckland ash clean up research (July 2014)
DEVORA MSc Josh Hayes won the University of Canterbury’s Tweet Your Thesis contest for tweeting about his Auckland ash cleanup research:
- Canterbury research into Auckland eruption cleanup (Scoop, 13/07/2014)
Auckland Evacuation: What to expect (April 2014)
A journal article by UoA’s Erik Tomsen and other DEVORA researchers was published. The article summarizes Erik’s MSc project examining transport patterns during an evacuation due to a volcanic eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field:
- Life won’t stop in an eruption (Stuff, 18/04/2014)
Drilling into the Past: Rangitoto Volcano (February 2014)
There was a great level of interest in this EQC-funded study led by Phil Shane at the University of Auckland:
- Rangitoto gives clues on next blast (New Zealand Herald, 12/02/2014)
- Drilling begins to study Rangitoto’s explosive history (New Zealand Herald, 11/02/2014)
- Drilling Rangitoto (TVNZ, 14/02/2014)
- Scientists look at risk of Rangitoto eruption (TV3 News, 11/02/2014)
- Drilling on Rangitoto Island (‘Our Changing World’ and ‘Afternoons’ Programs, Radio New Zealand National, 19/03/2014 and 20/03/2014)
- Drilling into the past for the future of Rangitoto (Newstalk ZB, 12/02/2014)
- Rangitoto’s buried past may reveal future eruption risk (Scoop, 11/02/2014)